As Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House on Monday, one of the major talking points ahead of his inauguration has been his repeated focus on the future of Greenland. A self-governing territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, Greenland, according to the President-elect, is vital to the security and economic future of the United States. While the Danish leadership insists that Greenland’s future is not up for discussion, Jacques Hartmann, a professor of International Law and Human Rights at the University of Dundee, has identified potential scenarios that may play out.
Sale of territories
Greenland was legally a colony until 1953, when it was integrated into the Danish Realm. Subsequently, Greenland became part of the Kingdom of Denmark—the legal term for Denmark, Greenland, and the Faroe Islands—which, from an international law perspective, constitutes one state.
A more relevant precedent than the sale of the Danish West Indies in 1917 is that of other overseas territories integrated into metropolitan states and later gaining independence.
An example is Algeria, which gained independence from France in 1962. There are other examples of the division of states, such as South Sudan’s independence from Sudan in 2011 and Bougainville’s 2019 vote to leave Papua New Guinea. Bougainville’s independence, however, has been delayed due to a lack of parliamentary approval.
A move to independence
While both the Danish and Greenlandic PM have ruled out Greenland being sold, this does not mean it cannot become part of the US.
To seek closer ties with the US, one option would be for Greenland to first become an independent state and then integrate with the US. Greenland could potentially become a federal state, as Alaska did in 1959. Alternatively, Greenland could have looser ties with the US, akin to Puerto Rico, Guam, American Samoa, the Northern Mariana Islands, or the US Virgin Islands, as the Danish West Indies were called before they were sold by Denmark to the US.
Greenland could achieve independence in two ways: either through secession or negotiated independence.
Secession is a process whereby a group unilaterally seeks to separate from the state to which it belongs, creating a new state on part of the former state’s territory. Negotiated independence, by contrast, is a consensus-based process in which a state grants independence to a territory and its people through negotiation, as occurred with South Sudan.
Greenland’s right to self-determination
Although Greenland is part of the Kingdom of Denmark, there is no doubt that the Greenlandic people have a right to self-determination. This is confirmed in the Self-Government Act, which the Danish Parliament passed in 2009.
The Act states that the decision regarding Greenland’s independence rests with the Greenlandic people. However, according to the Act, independence requires an agreement between Naalakkersuisut (Greenland’s government) and the Danish government, to be approved by a referendum in Greenland and by a vote in the Danish Parliament. But even if Greenland was not to follow this procedure, a unilateral declaration of independence by Greenland would likely be recognised by the US and possibly other states.
Closer ties with the US without parliamentary approval
Even if Greenland opts for secession, negotiations will still be required on numerous institutional matters currently covering the entire Kingdom. Greenland has already assumed certain competencies, but there remain many new areas to take over. The United Kingdom faced similar questions before the Scottish referendum in 2014. Scotland sought to retain the currency, the head of state, and EU membership, but these matters were beyond Scotland’s control.
Despite clear rejections of sale, options for Greenland’s future remain open and closer ties can be established with the US without the Danish Parliament’s consent.
Regardless of the path chosen, the process will be complex, involving significant political and legal challenges. While Danish politicians can complicate the process, they cannot prevent independence if that is the wish of the Greenlandic people.
